Sunday, May 20, 2018

Charting Last Week (5/14/18 - 5/18/18)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the first quarter is 2.18% year over year growth (-0.34% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the second quarter is at 2.27% year over year growth (0.72% QoQ) down from 2.30% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
The stock market was mixed for the week with Mid and Small Cap stocks posting gains while the rest of the market declined. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 91.3% chance of two more rate hikes this year (up from 90.4% last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.17% percentage points to 1.85%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.64%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.    
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past perforance is not an indication of future performance.

Saturday, May 19, 2018

International Leading Indicators - May 2018

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 1.85% and is 0.21% percentage points lower than last month. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.64%.

The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries on Monday. 17 of the 20 countries in the Developed Markets had decreasing Leading Indices. The Leading Indices decreased for 8 out of 15 countries in the Emerging Markets. When available, I have averaged the indicators with the Conference Board's Leading indicators to create a composite for each country. I created Leading Indicators for International Developed Markets (EFA) and International Emerging Markets (EEM) by weighting each country's growth rate by the market share of each country's stocks in the respective funds. On the last chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for various countries.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, May 13, 2018

Charting Last Week (5/7/18 - 5/11/18)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the first quarter is 2.20% year over year growth (-0.25% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the second quarter is at 2.30% year over year growth (0.83% QoQ) up from 2.25% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
The stock market posted strong gains for the week. Earnings season is almost over and earnings for the S&P 500 is at an all-time high. Bond prices were mixed for the week. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 90.4% chance of two more rate hikes this year (up from 87.9% last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.  
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.01% percentage points to 2.02%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.71%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.    
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past perforance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, May 6, 2018

Charting Last Week (4/30/18 - 5/4/18)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the first quarter is 2.16% year over year growth (-0.43% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the second quarter is at 2.25% year over year growth (0.65% QoQ) up from 2.19% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
Equity and Bond prices were mixed for the week. The Fed left rates unchanged in their meeting this week. The market is expecting a rate hike next month and one more in September. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 87.9% chance of two more rate hikes this year (down from 89.6% last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
There were not any updates to the International Leading Indices during the week. The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 2.03%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.61%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.    
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past perforance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, April 29, 2018

Charting Last Week (4/23/18 - 4/27/18)

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced on Friday the first estimate of GDP for the first quarter of 2018. GDP grew at a 2.86% year over year rate (2.32% QoQ). The North Star GDP Estimate for the first quarter is 2.17% year over year growth (-0.38% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the second quarter is at 2.19% year over year growth (0.43% QoQ) up from 2.12% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
Equity and Bond prices were mixed for the week. The 10 Year Treasury crossed the 3% mark for the first time in four years before ending the week at 2.96%. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 89.6% chance of two more rate hikes this year (down from 90.2% last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.  
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.03% percentage points to 2.03%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.61%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.    
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past perforance is not an indication of future performance.