Monday, January 15, 2018

International Leading Indicators - January 2018

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 2.39% and is 0.12% percentage points lower than last month. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.38%.

The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries today. 12 of the 20 countries in the Developed Markets had decreasing Leading Indices. The Leading Indices decreased for 9 out of 15 countries in the Emerging Markets. When available, I have averaged the indicators with the Conference Board's Leading indicators to create a composite for each country. I created Leading Indicators for International Developed Markets (EFA) and International Emerging Markets (EEM) by weighting each country's growth rate by the market share of each country's stocks in the respective funds. On the last chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for various countries.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, January 14, 2018

Charting Last Week (1/8 - 1/12/18)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the third quarter is 2.30% year over year growth (3.04% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the fourth quarter of 2017 is at 2.16% year over year growth (1.21% QoQ) down from 2.18% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
Stocks continued to rally for the second week in a row starting the year off with a bang. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 73.7% chance of a rate hike by March 2018 (up from 68.1% last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.08% percentage points to 2.42%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.44%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.    
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past perforance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, January 7, 2018

Charting Last Week (1/2 - 1/5/18)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the third quarter is 2.27% year over year growth (3.03% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the fourth quarter of 2017 is at 2.18% year over year growth (1.27% QoQ) down from 2.19% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
Stocks started off the year with strong gains setting new record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed the 25,000 mark for the first time. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 68.1% chance of a rate hike by March 2018 (up from 56.4% last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
There were not any updates to the International Leading Indices during the week. The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 2.50%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.34%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.    
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past perforance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, December 31, 2017

Charting Last Week (12/26 - 12/29/17)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the third quarter is 2.11% year over year growth (2.50% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the fourth quarter of 2017 is at 2.19% year over year growth (1.40% QoQ) unchanged from last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
US stock prices were modestly down for the week while bond prices were up. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 56.4% chance of a rate hike by March 2018 (down from 57.3% last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.  
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 2.50%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) increased by 0.10% percentage points to 5.34%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.    
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past perforance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, December 24, 2017

Charting Last Week (12/18 - 12/22/17)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the third quarter is 2.11% year over year growth (2.50% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the fourth quarter of 2017 is at 2.19% year over year growth (1.46% QoQ) up from 2.17% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
Stock prices were up for the week while bond prices were down. The S&P 500 moved higher into record territory for the fifth week in a row. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 57.3% chance of a rate hike by March 2018 (unchanged from last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 2.50%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) increased by 0.10% percentage points to 5.34%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.    
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past perforance is not an indication of future performance.