Sunday, April 22, 2018

Charting Last Week (4/16/18 - 4/20/18)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter is 2.18% year over year growth (1.24% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2018 is at 2.15% year over year growth (-0.13% QoQ) up from 2.05% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
Equities held on to earlier gains during the week to post a small gain for the week. Bond prices were down sharply. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 90.2% chance of two more rate hikes this year (up from 84.3% last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.04% percentage points to 2.06%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.56%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.    
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past perforance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, April 15, 2018

Charting Last Week (4/9/18 - 4/13/18)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter is 2.13% year over year growth (0.97% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2018 is at 2.05% year over year growth (-0.59% QoQ) down from 2.06% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
Equities posted strong gains for the week while bond prices were mixed. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 97.9% chance of two more rate hikes this year (up from 66.5% last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.18% percentage points to 2.10%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.55%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.    
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past perforance is not an indication of future performance.

Wednesday, April 11, 2018

International Leading Indicators - April 2018

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 2.14% and is 0.14% percentage points lower than last month. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.60%.

The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries yesterday. 14 of the 20 countries in the Developed Markets had decreasing Leading Indices. The Leading Indices decreased for 10 out of 15 countries in the Emerging Markets. When available, I have averaged the indicators with the Conference Board's Leading indicators to create a composite for each country. I created Leading Indicators for International Developed Markets (EFA) and International Emerging Markets (EEM) by weighting each country's growth rate by the market share of each country's stocks in the respective funds. On the last chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for various countries.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, April 8, 2018

Charting Last Week (4/2/18 - 4/6/18)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter is 2.12% year over year growth (0.97% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2018 is at 2.06% year over year growth (-0.53% QoQ) up from 2.05% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
It was another volatile week for the markets as trade war fears continued to impact the market. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 66.5% chance of two more rate hikes this year (down from 68.9% last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.  
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.03% percentage points to 2.30%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.93%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.  
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past perforance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, April 1, 2018

Charting Last Week (3/26/18 - 3/29/18)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter is 2.05% year over year growth (0.79% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2018 is at 2.05% year over year growth (-0.50% QoQ) down from 2.10% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
Last week was a good week for both equities and bond prices. Bond Prices are at their highest level in two months. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 68.9% chance of two more rate hikes this year (down from 76.9% last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.  
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.04% percentage points to 2.33%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.93%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.    
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past perforance is not an indication of future performance.