Sunday, February 18, 2018

Charting Last Week (2/12 - 2/16/18)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter is 2.22% year over year growth (1.43% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2018 is at 2.28% year over year growth (0.38% QoQ) up from 2.16% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
The markets bounced back after a couple of volatile weeks. The S&P 500 has now recovered 6.0% of the 10.1% decline from its peak. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 60.8% chance of three more rate hikes this year (up from 47.1% last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.  
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.02% percentage points to 2.57%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.83%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.    
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past perforance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, February 11, 2018

Charting Last Week (2/5 - 2/9/18)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter is 2.29% year over year growth (1.72% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2018 is at 2.16% year over year growth (-0.11% QoQ) up from 2.12% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

The equity markets were down roughly five percent across the board erasing the strong gains posted in January. This was the second week of volatility in a row after a relatively calm year in 2017. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 71.9% chance of a rate hike by March 2018 (down from 77.5% last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.  
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.18% percentage points to 2.59%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.78%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.    
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past perforance is not an indication of future performance.

Friday, February 9, 2018

International Leading Indicators - February 2018

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 2.59% and is 0.20% percentage points higher than last month. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.78%.

The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries yesterday. 10 of the 20 countries in the Developed Markets had increasing Leading Indices. The Leading Indices increased for 10 out of 15 countries in the Emerging Markets. When available, I have averaged the indicators with the Conference Board's Leading indicators to create a composite for each country. I created Leading Indicators for International Developed Markets (EFA) and International Emerging Markets (EEM) by weighting each country's growth rate by the market share of each country's stocks in the respective funds. On the last chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for various countries.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, February 4, 2018

Charting Last Week (1/29 - 2/2/18)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter is 2.28% year over year growth (1.70% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2018 is at 2.12% year over year growth (-0.24% QoQ) down from 2.13% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

The S&P 500 (SPY) was down 3.88% for the week, the biggest weekly loss in over two years. During 2017, the biggest weekly loss was only 1.34%. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 77.5% chance of a rate hike by March 2018 (up from 73.7% last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.  


The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.05% percentage points to 2.41%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.97%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.  

 
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past perforance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, January 28, 2018

Charting Last Week (1/22 - 1/26/18)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter is 2.18% year over year growth (1.29% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2018 is at 2.13% year over year growth (-0.22% QoQ) up from 2.01% last week. . The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
Stocks moved further into record territory for the fourth week in a row continuing a strong start to the year. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 73.7% chance of a rate hike by March 2018 (the same as last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.  
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.01% percentage points to 2.36%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.97%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.  
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past perforance is not an indication of future performance.