Sunday, February 23, 2014

Charting Last Week (2/17/14 - 2/21/14)

The Daily Leading Index fell by .72% percentage points to 4.99%. The Daily Coincident Index fell to 3.02%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
Equities were mixed for the week. The Russell 2000 led the way with a 1.40% increase for the week. Bond prices were mostly up for the week. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Index for the International Developed Markets (EFA) rose to 4.27% with strength in Australia more than offsetting weakness in Germany and France. There were no updates for the Leading Index for International Emerging Markets (EEM) which is at 4.39%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Friday, February 21, 2014

Annual and Monthly Returns for Key Indices - 1/2014

Here are two charts showing the annual and monthly returns of various asset classes that I track. Historically from 1926 to 2012, small cap stocks (IWM) have outperformed large cap stocks (SPY) with annual returns of 11.7% vs. 9.9%. However, small cap stocks have had 50% more volatility. International Emerging Markets (EEM) carry a similar risk premium to International Developed Markets (EFA). You can see the higher risk/reward of those two indices in these charts. IWM and EEM often lead SPY and EFA in the up years but also often lead downward in the years with declines. Bonds are a good way to diversify a portfolio. In the years that SPY was down, Bond Indices have often had good returns. US REITs (VNQ) have also been a good way to diversify a portfolio.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, February 16, 2014

Charting Last Week (2/10/14 - 2/14/14)

The Daily Leading Index fell by 0.16% percentage points to 5.71%. The Daily Coincident Index fell to 3.02%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
Equities continued to rebound sharply after being oversold a week and a half ago. Bond prices were mixed for the week. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Index for the International Developed Markets (EFA) fell to 4.23% due to slowing growth in Japan and the UK. The Leading Index for International Emerging Markets (EEM) fell to 4.39%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Thursday, February 13, 2014

International Leading Indicators - 2/10/14

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) rose to 5.51% and is 0.02% percentage points lower than last month. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.43%. 

The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries this week. When available, I have averaged the indicators with the Conference Board's Leading indicators to create a composite for each country. I created Leading Indicators for International Developed Markets (EFA) and International Emerging Markets (EEM) by weighting each country's growth rate by the market share of each country's stocks in the respective funds. On the last chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for various countries.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, February 9, 2014

Charting Last Week (2/3 - 2/7/14)

The Daily Leading Index fell by .54% percentage points to 5.87%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 3.43%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
Equities were mostly up for the week except for the Russell 2000 (IWM) which was down 1.26% for the week. Equities have rebounded from being deeply oversold the last two weeks. Bond prices were mixed for the week. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
There were not any updates to the International Leading Indices during the week. The Leading Index for the International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 4.50%. The Leading Index for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.47%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, February 2, 2014

Charting Last Week (1/27 - 1/31/14)

The Daily Leading Index fell by 1.01% percentage points to 6.41%. The Daily Coincident Index rose to 3.43%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
Equities fell for the week led by International Developed Markets (EFA) which was down 1.91% for the week. Bond prices were up for the week. The 10 Year Treasury yield continued to fall and is at 2.64% after beginning the year above 3%. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Index for the International Developed Markets (EFA) rose slightly to 4.50%. The Leading Index for International Emerging Markets (EEM) rose to 4.47%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.