Monday, May 26, 2014

Charting Last Week (5/19 - 5/23/14)

The Daily Leading Index fell by 0.11% percentage points to 6.78%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 3.01%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
Equity prices were up for the week. Bond prices were mixed for the week. The S&P 500 closed above 1900 for the first time. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Index for the International Developed Markets (EFA) fell slightly to 3.67%. The Leading Index for International Emerging Markets (EEM) also declined slightly to 3.80%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, May 18, 2014

Charting Last Week (5/12 - 5/16/14)

The Daily Leading Index remained unchanged at 6.88%. The Daily Coincident Index fell to 3.01%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
Equity prices were mixed for the week. Bond prices were up for the week. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Index for the International Developed Markets (EFA) fell to 3.68%. The Leading Index for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 3.83%. The OECD released their Leading Indicators this week. I use these indicators along with ones from the Conference Board to create composite indices. 17 of the 20 countries in the Developed Markets had declining Leading Indices. The Leading Indices declined for 8 out of 15 countries in the Emerging Markets. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Wednesday, May 14, 2014

International Leading Indicators - 5/13/14

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) fell to 3.71% and is 0.52% percentage points lower than last month continuing its gradual three month slide. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) rose to 3.83% ending a three month decline.

 The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries yesterday. When available, I have averaged the indicators with the Conference Board's Leading indicators to create a composite for each country. I created Leading Indicators for International Developed Markets (EFA) and International Emerging Markets (EEM) by weighting each country's growth rate by the market share of each country's stocks in the respective funds. On the last chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for various countries.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, May 11, 2014

Charting Last Week (5/5 - 5/9/14)

The Daily Leading Index fell by 0.14% percentage points to 6.88%. The Daily Coincident Index rose to 3.34%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
Equity prices were mostly down for the week. Bond prices were mixed for the week. Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen talked about small cap stocks and the overall stock market in her speech to Congress on Wedensday. "There are pockets where we could potentially see misvaluations in smaller-cap stocks," she said. "Overall those broad metrics don’t suggest that we are in obviously bubble territory. We don’t have targets for equity prices and can’t detect if we’re in a bubble with certainty." The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Index for the International Developed Markets (EFA) fell to 3.80% after Japan's Leading Index continued to weaken after peaking last December. The Leading Index for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 3.73%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, May 4, 2014

Charting Last Week (4/28 - 5/2/14)

The Daily Leading Index fell by 0.18% percentage points to 7.02%. The Daily Coincident Index rose to 3.34%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
Both equity and bond prices were up for the week. The S&P 500 is close to its all-time high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new record this week. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Index for the International Developed Markets (EFA) fell to 4.02%. The Leading Index for International Emerging Markets (EEM) fell to 3.73%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.