Sunday, July 26, 2015

Charting Last Week (7/20 - 7/24/15)

The Daily Leading Index decreased by 0.07% percentage points to 3.98%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 3.44%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
With 49% of the S&P 500 reporting earnings, as reported full year earnings are down 2.08% compared to full year earnings last quarter. This is largely due to the energy sector. Excluding the energy sector earnings are still up.

Stock prices were down for the week. Bond prices were mostly up for the week. The Fed Funds futures are implying a 57.1% chance of a rate hike by December with an implied rate of 0.426% (up slightly from a 57.0% chance last week and an implied rate of 0.424%) according to data compiled from CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

 The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 2.34%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) rose to 3.15%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, July 19, 2015

Charting Last Week (7/13 - 7/17/15)

The Daily Leading Index decreased by 0.53% percentage points to 4.05%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 3.51%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
Stock prices were up for the week.  The Nasdaq 100 was up 5.5% for the week led by Google which was up 16% on Friday after posting strong earnings. This was an increase of $65 billion in market cap, the largest one day dollar change in history. The $65 billion gain in market cap is bigger than the valuations of over 400 companies in the S&P 500. The Fed Funds futures are implying a 57% chance of a rate hike by December with an implied rate of 0.42% (up from a 50% chance last week and an implied rate of 0.38%) according to data compiled from CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 2.34% and is 0.08% percentage points lower than last month. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) fell to 3.13%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, July 12, 2015

Charting Last Week (7/6 - 7/10/15)

The Daily Leading Index decreased by 0.07% percentage points to 4.58%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 3.35%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
Stock prices were mostly up for the week despite a lot of volatility. The big exception was Emerging Markets which was down 3.4% for the week and is now down over 10% year over year. The Greek stock market is down 59% year over year. The Chinese stock market has lost a third of its value since June but is still up year over year. The Fed Funds futures are implying a 50% chance of a rate hike by December with an implied rate of 0.38% (up from a 47% chance last week and an implied rate of 0.37%) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries on Wednesday. 11 of the 20 countries in the Developed Markets had increasing Leading Indices. The Leading Indices decreased for 9 out of 15 countries in the Emerging Markets. The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 2.42% and is 0.09% percentage points higher than last month. The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) has now risen for seven months in a row after falling steadily for ten months. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) fell to 3.38%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Wednesday, July 8, 2015

International Leading Indicators - July 2015

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 2.42% and is 0.09% percentage points higher than last month. The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) has now risen for seven months in a row after falling steadily for ten months. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) fell to 3.38%.

 The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries today. 11 of the 20 countries in the Developed Markets had increasing Leading Indices. The Leading Indices decreased for 9 out of 15 countries in the Emerging Markets. When available, I have averaged the indicators with the Conference Board's Leading indicators to create a composite for each country. I created Leading Indicators for International Developed Markets (EFA) and International Emerging Markets (EEM) by weighting each country's growth rate by the market share of each country's stocks in the respective funds. On the last chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for various countries.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, July 5, 2015

Charting Last Week (6/29 - 7/2/15)

The Daily Leading Index decreased by 0.29% percentage points to 4.65%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 3.43%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
Stock prices took a hit earlier in the week after Greece rejected a cash for reform proposal. The stock market recovered some of the losses mid-week. The Fed Funds futures are implying a 47% chance of a rate hike by December with an implied rate of 0.37% (down from a 57% chance last week and an implied rate of 0.42%) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
There were not any updates to the International Leading Indices during the week. The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 2.42%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 3.90%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.