Sunday, August 30, 2015

Charting Last Week (8/24 - 8/28/15)

The Daily Leading Index decreased by 0.54% percentage points to 3.66%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 2.89%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.

 The stock market went on a roller coaster ride this week. After falling 5.2% in the first two days, the S&P 500 ended the week up 0.9% from last week. The Chinese Shanghai Stock Exchange had an even wilder week, crashing 17.4% in the first 3 days before recovering some of the losses with a 10.2% gain for the last two days.

 The Fed Funds futures are implying a 56% chance of a rate hike by December with an implied rate of 0.43% (down from a 60% chance last week and an implied rate of 0.44%) according to data compiled from CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.01% percentage points to 2.54%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) fell to 2.84%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, August 23, 2015

Charting Last Week (8/17 - 8/21/15)

The Daily Leading Index decreased by 1.68% percentage points to 3.11%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 2.97%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
With 97% of the S&P 500 reporting earnings, as reported full year earnings are down 4.13% compared to full year earnings last quarter. Stock prices took a big hit this week over concerns of a slowdown in China. Oil fell below $40 a barrel for the first time since 2009. Bond prices were mostly up. The Fed Funds futures are implying a 60% chance of a rate hike by December with an implied rate of 0.44% (down from a 72% chance last week and an implied rate of 0.50%) according to data compiled from CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) remained at 2.54%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) fell to 3.08%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, August 16, 2015

Charting Last Week (8/10 - 8/14/15)

The Daily Leading Index decreased by 0.05% percentage points to 4.79%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 2.97%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
With 93% of the S&P 500 reporting earnings, as reported full year earnings are down 4.32% compared to full year earnings last quarter. US stock prices were up for the week while International stock prices were down. China devalued their Yuan this week causing some volatility in the markets. The Fed Funds futures are implying a 72% chance of a rate hike by December with an implied rate of 0.50% (up from a 64% chance last week and an implied rate of 0.45%) according to data compiled from CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.06% percentage points to 2.54%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) fell to 3.11%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Tuesday, August 11, 2015

International Leading Indicators - August 2015

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 2.51% and is 0.09% percentage points higher than last month. The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) has now risen for eight months in a row after falling steadily for ten months. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) fell to 3.18%.

The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries yesterday. 10 of the 20 countries in the Developed Markets had increasing Leading Indices. The Leading Indices decreased for 10 out of 15 countries in the Emerging Markets. When available, I have averaged the indicators with the Conference Board's Leading indicators to create a composite for each country. I created Leading Indicators for International Developed Markets (EFA) and International Emerging Markets (EEM) by weighting each country's growth rate by the market share of each country's stocks in the respective funds. On the last chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for various countries.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, August 9, 2015

Charting Last Week (8/3 - 8/7/15)

The Daily Leading Index increased by 0.24% percentage points to 4.84%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 2.87%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
With 90% of the S&P 500 reporting earnings, as reported full year earnings are down 4.28% compared to full year earnings last quarter. Stock and bond prices were down across the board for the week with the exception of Long Term Treasuries which were up 1.7% for the week and are now up 10.3% year over year. The Fed Funds futures are implying a 64% chance of a rate hike by December with an implied rate of 0.45% (up from a 55% chance last week and an implied rate of 0.40%) according to data compiled from CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
There were not any updates to the International Leading Indices during the week. The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 2.41%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 3.14%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, August 2, 2015

Charting Last Week (7/27 - 7/31/15)

The Daily Leading Index increased by 0.59% percentage points to 4.60%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 3.44%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
With 73% of the S&P 500 reporting earnings, as reported full year earnings are down 1.94% compared to full year earnings last quarter. Stock and bond prices were up across the board for the week. The Fed Funds futures are implying a 55% chance of a rate hike by December with an implied rate of 0.40% (down from a 57% chance last week and an implied rate of 0.43%) according to data compiled from CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.04% percentage points to 2.41%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) fell to 3.14%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.