Sunday, May 29, 2016

Charting Last Week (5/23 - 5/27/16)

The Daily Leading Index increased by 0.05% percentage points to 2.66%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 2.39%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
Stock prices were up across the board for the week while bond prices were mixed. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 61% chance that the next rate hike will come in July (up from a 53% chance last week) according CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.02% percentage points to 0.53%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) decreased by 1.17% percentage points to 2.01% after large revisions to the Conference Board's Leading Indicator for China. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, May 22, 2016

Charting Last Week (5/16 - 5/20/16)

The Daily Leading Index increased by 0.02% percentage points to 2.61%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 2.39%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
Stock prices were up for the week while bond prices were mostly down. The market's expectation of the next rate hike moved up from December to July last week after the release of the minutes from the Fed's April policy meeting. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 53% chance that the next rate hike will come in July (up from a 20% chance last week) according CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.06% percentage points to 0.51%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) increased to 3.18%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, May 15, 2016

Charting Last Week (5/9 - 5/13/16)

The Daily Leading Index increased by 0.84% percentage points to 2.59%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 2.02%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
Stock prices were down for the week while bond prices were mixed. The Fed Funds futures are implying just one rate hike this year with a 59% chance of a rate hike by December 2016 (up from a 61% chance last week) according CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.21% percentage points to 0.58%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) increased to 2.93%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Wednesday, May 11, 2016

International Leading Indicators - May 2016

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 0.38% and is 0.06% percentage points higher than last month. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 2.74%.

The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries today. 12 of the 20 countries in the Developed Markets had increasing Leading Indices. The Leading Indices increased for 7 out of 15 countries in the Emerging Markets. When available, I have averaged the indicators with the Conference Board's Leading indicators to create a composite for each country. I created Leading Indicators for International Developed Markets (EFA) and International Emerging Markets (EEM) by weighting each country's growth rate by the market share of each country's stocks in the respective funds. On the last chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for various countries.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, May 8, 2016

Charting Last Week (5/2 - 5/6/16)

The Daily Leading Index increased by 0.33% percentage points to 1.76%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 2.02%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
Stock prices were down for the week while bond prices were mixed. The Fed Funds futures are implying just one rate hike this year with a 61% chance of a rate hike by December 2016 (up from a 60% chance last week) according CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
There were not any updates to the International Leading Indices during the week. The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 0.36%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 2.75%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, May 1, 2016

Charting Last Week (4/25 - 4/29/16)

The Daily Leading Index increased by 0.06% percentage points to 1.43%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 2.11%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
Stock prices were down for the week while bond prices were up. The Fed Funds futures are implying just one rate hike this year with a 60% chance of a rate hike by December 2016 (down from a 66% chance last week) according CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.03% percentage points to 0.36%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) increased to 2.75%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.