Sunday, November 27, 2016

Charting Last Week (11/21 - 11/25/16)

The Daily Leading Index decreased by 0.02% percentage points to 1.66%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 1.67%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
Stocks continued to rally last week with Small Cap Stocks once again leading the way. Small Cap Stocks (IJR) are now up 13.8% since the election while the S&P 500 is only up 3.5%. The Fed Funds futures are implying a 93.5% chance of a rate hike by December 2016 down from a 95.4% chance last week according CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.04% percentage points to 0.66%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.10%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.    
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, November 20, 2016

Charting Last Week (11/14 - 11/18/16)

The Daily Leading Index increased by 0.25% percentage points to 1.68%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 1.66%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
Initial unemployment claims fell to 235,000, which is the lowest since 1973. This is impressive considering that the population is 50% larger than it was 43 years ago. The Fed Funds futures are implying a 95.4% chance of a rate hike by December 2016 up from a 81.1% chance last week according CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.  
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.04% percentage points to 0.62%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.02%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.    
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, November 13, 2016

Charting Last Week (11/7 - 11/11/16)

The Daily Leading Index increased by 0.02% percentage points to 1.43%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 1.56%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
There has been a dramatic shift in the investing landscape following Donald Trump's surprising victory. Small Cap Stocks have posted big gains for the week while Emerging Markets Stocks and Bonds were down sharply. Long Term Treasuries were hit hard with the 10 year Treasury yield jumping by 0.37% to 2.15%, the highest rate since the beginning of this year. Almost every asset class is either in the overbought or oversold territory now. The Fed Funds futures are implying a 81.1% chance of a rate hike by December 2016 up from a 66.8% chance last week according CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.01% percentage points to 0.58%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.08%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.    
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Wednesday, November 9, 2016

International Leading Indicators - November 2016

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 0.58% and is 0.01% percentage points higher than last month. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) increased to 5.15%.

The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries today. 12 of the 20 countries in the Developed Markets had increasing Leading Indices. The Leading Indices increased for 12 out of 15 countries in the Emerging Markets. When available, I have averaged the indicators with the Conference Board's Leading indicators to create a composite for each country. I created Leading Indicators for International Developed Markets (EFA) and International Emerging Markets (EEM) by weighting each country's growth rate by the market share of each country's stocks in the respective funds. On the last chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for various countries.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, November 6, 2016

Charting Last Week (10/31 - 11/4/16)

The Daily Leading Index increased by 0.07% percentage points to 1.41%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 1.55%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
Stocks were down for the week while bond prices were mostly up. The S&P 500 has declined 9 days in a row for the first time in almost 36 years. The Fed Funds futures are implying a 66.8% chance of a rate hike by December 2016 down from a 74.2% chance last week according CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
  There were not any updates to the International Leading Indices during the week. The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 0.30%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.00%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.    
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.