Monday, September 11, 2017

International Leading Indicators - September 2017

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 2.62% and is 0.16% percentage points lower than last month. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) decreased to 4.82%.

The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries last Thursday. 13 of the 20 countries in the Developed Markets had decreasing Leading Indices. The Leading Indices decreased for 9 out of 15 countries in the Emerging Markets. When available, I have averaged the indicators with the Conference Board's Leading indicators to create a composite for each country. I created Leading Indicators for International Developed Markets (EFA) and International Emerging Markets (EEM) by weighting each country's growth rate by the market share of each country's stocks in the respective funds. On the last chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for various countries.

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Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.